Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/16/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -160, Rays -1.5 140
• Money Line: Angels 130, Rays -150
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 42%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 58%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 50.75%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 49.25%

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the Los Angeles Angels on April 16, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a season record of 9-8, are having an above-average season, while the Angels hold an average record of 8-8.

The Rays, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start the right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale. Civale has started three games this season, boasting a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.12. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and might face challenges going forward.

On the other hand, the Angels will rely on their right-handed pitcher, Jose Soriano. Soriano has started one game and made three appearances out of the bullpen this year. Unfortunately, he holds a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 6.30. However, his 3.94 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and might perform better in upcoming games.

The Rays' offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season, displaying an average performance. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 9th, and team home runs, ranking 4th. Meanwhile, the Angels' offense is also considered average, ranking 17th in MLB. However, they showcase their power with the 3rd most home runs in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Rays rank 19th, while the Angels rank 28th, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Rays might have a slight advantage in the later innings.

According to the current odds, the Rays are favored to win with a moneyline of -150, indicating an implied win probability of 58%. The Angels, as the underdog, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%. Based on the odds, the Rays have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs, compared to the Angels' 3.65 runs.

In this game, Aaron Civale, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Angels offense. This matchup might favor Civale, as his strength aligns with the Angels' weakness. However, Civale's tendency to give up flyballs could be a concern against the powerful Angels offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs.

As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see if the Rays can capitalize on their home-field advantage and offensive prowess. The Angels, on the other hand, will look to overcome their offensive struggles and challenge the Rays' strong pitching.

This game is the second in the series between the two teams, and both will be eager to secure a victory. With the Rays having the edge in various statistical categories, they have a good chance of coming out on top. However, anything can happen in baseball, making this matchup one to watch.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Jose Soriano (48% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels projected batting order profiles as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale has a reverse platoon split and is stuck matching up with 6 same-handed bats in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 69 games at home (+13.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Richie Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.65 Units / 42% ROI)

Angels vs Rays Prediction: Angels 4.4 - Rays 4.07

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