Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/10/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on April 10, 2025, they are looking to build on their 5-4 win in yesterday's matchup. The Angels have been in impressive form, holding a record of 7-4, while the Rays sit at a below-average 5-6. This matchup features Zack Littell, an average right-handed pitcher ranked 108th in MLB Power Rankings, against the Angels' Jose Soriano, who is performing well at 34th overall.

Littell has struggled this season with an 0-2 record and a 4.15 ERA, indicating he's experienced some bad luck, as suggested by his 3.59 xFIP. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters—stats that point to a challenging outing given his 5.4 hits and 1.0 walks allowed on average, which are concerning numbers. Conversely, Soriano has a solid 3.65 ERA and has a high strikeout rate of 30.4%, despite facing a low-strikeout Rays offense.

Offensively, the Rays rank 14th in MLB, but their power numbers are troubling, ranking 28th in home runs. In contrast, the Angels boast a strong 8th ranking in home runs, which could be influential given the projections favor a modest game total of 8.0 runs. With the Rays' bullpen ranked 7th in MLB, they may have an edge late in the game, but the offense needs to capitalize on any opportunities against Soriano, especially given their tendency to limit walks.

In this close matchup, the Rays will need their best hitters to step up, particularly after a week where they've shown some promise, including a strong .417 batting average from their top hitter. With betting markets reflecting a tight contest and the odds favoring the Rays, this game could be pivotal in determining the trajectory of their season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a big edge over flyball bats, Jose Soriano and his 53.8% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this outing matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Schanuel is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jorge Soler hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 7 bats who share his hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Zack Littell ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brandon Lowe has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 89.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect better results for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+20.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 113 games (+5.60 Units / 5% ROI)
• Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)

• Date: April 10, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Zack Littell - Rays

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