Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/9/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Los Angeles Angels on April 9, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, especially following the Angels' narrow 4-3 victory in yesterday's matchup. The Rays, currently struggling with a 4-6 record, are looking to turn their season around, while the Angels, sitting at 7-3, are riding a wave of confidence.

Ryan Pepiot is projected to take the mound for the Rays. Despite a Win/Loss record of 0-1, his 2.45 ERA suggests he’s been effective, though his 3.92 xFIP indicates he might be due for some regression. Pepiot's last outing saw him go 5 innings with 2 earned runs, but he allowed 3 walks, which could be a concern against a potent Angels lineup.

On the flip side, Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Angels. With a 4.50 ERA and a 5.74 FIP, Kikuchi's performance has been more average, but he did manage to strike out 6 batters in his last start. His tendency to give up fly balls could play into the Rays' hands, as their power has been lacking; they rank 30th in MLB for home runs this season.

The Rays' offense ranks 17th overall but boasts a solid 9th in team batting average. However, their inability to hit home runs could be a significant factor against Kikuchi. Conversely, the Angels rank 14th in overall offense and 6th in home runs, which gives them a distinct edge in power potential.

Given Tampa Bay's strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, they may be able to keep the game competitive if Pepiot can limit damage early. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting an average expectation, but with the Rays as betting favorites at -140, there’s room for an upset if they can capitalize on Kikuchi's weaknesses.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.1% more often this season (59.2%) than he did last year (53.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nolan Schanuel's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 88.5-mph now compared to just 86.1-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O'Hoppe, Kyren Paris, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot was on point in his last start and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Typically, batters like Danny Jansen who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Yusei Kikuchi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 125 games (+20.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 26% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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