Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 4/2/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Angels at Busch Stadium on April 2, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with strong starts to the season. The Cardinals currently sit at 3-2, while the Angels boast a slightly better 4-1 record. The Cardinals, however, are looking to rebound from a tough 9-7 loss to the Angels just yesterday.

In this interleague battle, the Cardinals will send Sonny Gray to the mound, who has been impressive early in the season. Despite his 1-0 record and a 3.60 ERA, advanced metrics suggest that Gray has been a bit unlucky, as his xERA stands at a more favorable 2.77. With a high flyball rate of 50%, Gray will face an Angels lineup that has struggled to generate power this year, ranking among the lowest in home runs with only 2 so far.

On the other side, Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Angels. His 0-1 record and 4.50 ERA indicate an average performance, yet he has shown potential with a 3.52 xFIP that suggests he could improve. However, facing a Cardinals offense that ranks 7th in MLB with 8 home runs could prove challenging for Kikuchi, especially given that he also has a flyball rate of 44%.

The Cardinals' offense has been productive, with their best hitter maintaining a stellar .421 batting average and 1.297 OPS. Meanwhile, the Angels' top performer has also been impressive, hitting .444 with a 1.545 OPS, but their overall offensive metrics are significantly weaker.

With the Cardinals favored at -150 on the moneyline, betting on them to bounce back and secure a win could be a savvy play, particularly given the matchup advantages for Gray against a struggling Angels lineup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This year, there has been a decline in Luis Rengifo's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.88 ft/sec last year to 22.46 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the unluckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of all SPs, Sonny Gray's fastball spin rate of 2514 rpm is in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Arenado usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals makes them the #27 team in the game since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 105 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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