Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 7/24/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 24, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, the American League West matchup presents a tale of two divergent seasons. The Mariners, boasting a 53-50 record, are having an average season, while the Angels stumble in with a dismal 44-57 record.

This contest marks the third game in the series, with Seattle aiming to extend their dominance. The pitching duel features Luis Castillo for the Mariners against Griffin Canning for the Angels. Castillo, the #40 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, brings a solid 3.55 ERA into the game. Despite an 8-10 win/loss record, Castillo is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 6.2 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters on average.

On the other hand, Griffin Canning, one of the worst pitchers in MLB by advanced stats, has struggled mightily this season. He carries a 3-10 record with a 5.20 ERA. Projections suggest Canning will pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters. Both teams' bullpens rank poorly, with Seattle's bullpen ranked 21st and the Angels' bullpen 26th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Offensively, the Mariners have been lacking, ranking 28th in overall offense and posting the worst team batting average in MLB. However, they show some power, ranking 11th in team home runs. Victor Robles has been a bright spot recently, hitting .500 with a 1.105 OPS over the last week.

The Angels' offense hasn't fared much better, ranking 23rd overall and 21st in team batting average. They do have a bit more speed on the bases, ranking 7th in stolen bases. Zach Neto has been hot for the Angels, hitting .400 with a 1.137 OPS over the last week.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Mariners are significant favorites with a moneyline of -190, translating to a 63% implied win probability. The Angels, as substantial underdogs with a +165 moneyline, have only a 37% implied win probability. Based on the current odds, the Mariners have a high implied team total of 4.31 runs, while the Angels have a very low implied team total of 3.19 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has used his change-up 5.6% more often this season (27.4%) than he did last year (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Over his last 3 outings, Luis Castillo has experienced a significant drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2167 rpm over the entire season to 2102 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has suffered from bad luck this year. His .264 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .322.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games at home (+15.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 away games (+13.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Anthony Rendon has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.37 vs Seattle Mariners 4.09

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