Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 7/22/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will host the Los Angeles Angels on July 22, 2024, in a highly anticipated American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a respectable 53-48 record this season, are having an above-average year. On the other hand, the Angels have struggled significantly, holding a 42-57 record. This series opener is crucial for both teams, particularly for Seattle, which aspires to climb in the division standings.

Seattle will lean on right-hander Bryce Miller, who has been a solid presence in their rotation. Despite a balanced 7-7 Win/Loss record and a commendable 3.63 ERA, advanced metrics like his 4.16 xERA suggest that he's been somewhat fortunate this year. Miller is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, allowing 1.9 earned runs with 4.8 strikeouts, although his projections for hits (4.3) and walks (1.1) are concerning.

The Angels counter with left-hander Tyler Anderson, who has an impressive 2.97 ERA this season but has also benefited from luck, as evidenced by his 5.03 xFIP. Anderson's projections include 5.6 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and 5.1 strikeouts. However, he may find success against a Mariners lineup that has struck out more than any other team in MLB this season, aligning with Anderson’s low 16.8 K% this year.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly potent. The Mariners rank 28th in overall offense and dead last in batting average, though they sit 10th in home runs. The Angels aren’t much better, ranking 24th in offense and 22nd in batting average. Surprisingly, the Mariners have a slight edge in power, while the Angels have been more effective on the basepaths, ranking 7th in stolen bases.

Both bullpens have struggled mightily, with Seattle's and Los Angeles's relief corps ranked 26th and 27th, respectively, in the Power Rankings. This promises an unpredictable late-game scenario should the starters exit early.

Seattle enters the game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -165, implying a solid 60% chance of victory. Bryce Miller's solid yet unspectacular performance coupled with the Mariners’ power advantage could be enough to outpace an Angels squad looking to upset the odds.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a significant edge over flyball batters, Tyler Anderson and his 39.1% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this outing matching up with 4 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brandon Drury has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .166 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .234 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

It may be sensible to expect better results for the Los Angeles Angels offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 14.2% from last season to this one (58.5% to 44.3%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Mitch Haniger is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 away games (+14.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.65 Units / 55% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.42 vs Seattle Mariners 4.02

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