Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 6/14/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Spencer Howard - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels are set to face off in an interleague matchup at Oracle Park on June 14, 2024. The Giants, who currently hold a 34-35 record, are having an average season and will look to build momentum against the struggling Angels, who sit at 26-42. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

On the mound for the Giants is right-hander Spencer Howard, who, despite being ranked as the 279th best starting pitcher in MLB, has posted an impressive 2.03 ERA over his three starts this year. However, his 4.78 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and could regress. Howard's low walk rate (5.7 BB%) could play into the hands of the Angels, who rank 6th in least walks in MLB, potentially allowing their hitters to capitalize on more strikes.

Opposing Howard is lefty Tyler Anderson for the Angels. Anderson has a solid 2.63 ERA across 13 starts, but his 5.01 xFIP indicates a significant amount of luck. He projects to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.3 hits over 5.4 innings, which is concerning given his below-average strikeout rate (4.4 per game).

Offensively, the Giants rank 15th in MLB, boasting an average batting average (12th) but struggling with home runs (21st) and stolen bases (30th). Mike Yastrzemski has been a standout for San Francisco, posting a .910 OPS with a home run over the past week. Meanwhile, the Angels' offense ranks 16th, with strength in home runs (8th) and stolen bases (8th). Logan O'Hoppe has been red-hot, hitting .533 with a 1.533 OPS over the last week.

The Giants' bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, could be a decisive factor, especially against an Angels bullpen that ranks 29th. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a 59% win probability, a solid 4% higher than the betting market's implied 55%. With the Giants' bullpen strength and the Angels' struggles, there may be value in backing San Francisco in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's 88.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 2nd percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Schanuel's speed has decreased this year. His 26.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.09 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Taylor Ward has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Compared to average, Spencer Howard has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing an -19.0 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Typically, batters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.75 Units / 91% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.04 vs San Francisco Giants 4.67

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