Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Angels at Petco Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Padres enter this matchup enjoying a strong season with a record of 25-15, while the Angels have struggled, sitting at 17-23. In their previous game, the Padres lost to the struggling Angels and San Diego will look to bounce back here.

San Diego's Dylan Cease, ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, is projected to take the mound. Though his ERA of 4.91 this season is below average, his 3.80 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky to this point and could perform better moving forward. Cease is a high-strikeout pitcher with a 27.0 K% facing an Angels lineup that has the second-most strikeouts in the league, which could give him a significant advantage today.

On the other side, Los Angeles will counter with Jose Soriano, who has a solid ERA of 4.00 but is ranked 51st among MLB starters. Soriano’s low strikeout rate of 19.1 K% might prove problematic against the Padres, who have the lowest strikeout rate in the league. Furthermore, the Angels' offense has been inconsistent, ranking 27th overall and 29th in team batting average, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on any mistakes from Cease.

The Padres offense ranks 1st in MLB in batting average and is projected to score an average of 4.35 runs today, while the Angels have a low implied team total of 3.15 runs. With a strong bullpen ranked 3rd overall, the Padres look well-equipped to secure another win and extend their lead in the standings.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano's 96-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.7-mph decrease from last season's 97.7-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, batters like Taylor Ward who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dylan Cease.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Dylan Cease will post an average of 17.2 outs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.22 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.39 Units / 18% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 73% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.33, San Diego Padres 3.92

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

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