Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 5/12/2025

On May 12, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Angels at Petco Park for the first game of their interleague series as both teams seek to shift their current trajectories. The Padres come into this matchup with a strong 25-14 record and are enjoying a notably successful season. In contrast, the Angels are struggling at 16-23, with their hitters falling short as they rank 26th in MLB offense. While the Padres have showcased their power offensively, the Angels continue to fight through inconsistent production.

San Diego's Michael King, projected to start, boasts a stellar 2.22 ERA and a 4-1 record this year, ranking as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. King’s high strikeout rate of 27.0% positions him well against an Angels lineup that has racked up the 4th most strikeouts in the league. However, he faces a challenge with the Angels’ potent power hitters, as they have already hit 53 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB.

For Los Angeles, Yusei Kikuchi will take the mound, entering the game with a 0-4 record and a 3.83 ERA. Although he has shown flashes of potential, Kikuchi is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.8 hits today, which could further strain an offense that ranks 28th in batting average.

The Padres are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -220, reflecting their broader offensive and pitching advantages. The Game Total sits low at 7.0 runs, hinting at tight pitching, particularly from King. As both teams aim for a win, the Padres’ strong season record and pitching depth should provide them a favorable edge in the series opener.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Because groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Yusei Kikuchi (43.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Zach Neto has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last season's 94.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Los Angeles Angels batters as a group rank 3rd- in the game for power this year when judging by their 10.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball bats like Jose Iglesias generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.60 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.33 Units / 13% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.45 Units / 28% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.49, San Diego Padres 4.08

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Michael King - Padres

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