Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Pick – 5/14/2025

The San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Angels on May 14, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Petco Park. The Padres are currently riding high with a solid record of 26-15, while the Angels are struggling at 17-24. This game is particularly significant for the Padres, who are looking to build on their recent successes, including a notable victory over the Angels in yesterday's game.

San Diego's projected starter, Randy Vasquez, has had a mixed season so far, with a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and a respectable ERA of 3.76. However, his 6.21 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Vasquez has a low strikeout rate (10.4 K%) and will need to navigate a powerful Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeouts, which could play to his advantage. However, he must be wary of the Angels' power, as they have hit 57 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB.

On the other side, Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for Los Angeles, sporting a 1-4 record and a less-than-ideal ERA of 5.30. His low strikeout rate (14.2 K%) could hinder him against a Padres offense that ranks 1st in the league for fewest strikeouts. The Padres' offense is also ranked 2nd in team batting average, which bodes well for their chances against Hendricks.

With the Padres' bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB and the Angels' at 22nd, San Diego appears to hold the upper hand in this matchup. The current betting odds reflect this, with the Padres favored at -185 and an implied team total of 5.14 runs. As the game total sits at 9.0 runs, bettors may find value in backing the Padres to continue their strong play against a struggling Angels team.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kyle Hendricks in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Logan O'Hoppe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez performed well in his previous outing and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Arraez's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 85.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.5-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.44 Units / 14% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.49, San Diego Padres 4.58

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

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