Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/19/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Angels
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On July 19, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will host the Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Coliseum in an American League West matchup. Although both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics holding a 37-61 record and the Angels at 41-55, this game offers intriguing elements for bettors and fans alike.

Oakland will send JP Sears to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Sears is ranked as the 162nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, suggesting that he has been below average. With a 6-7 record and an ERA of 4.56, Sears is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.7 batters on average—a below-average strikeout rate. However, he faces a middling Angels offense that ranks 23rd in MLB, potentially giving him a slight edge.

On the flip side, the Angels have yet to decide on a starting pitcher for this contest. Who they end up choosing could have a major impact on our projections and the overall outcome of this game.

The Athletics' offense, despite its overall poor ranking, does have power, which could be a factor against the pitching staff of the Angels. On the flip side, the Angels' offense, though ranked low in batting average (22nd), has been effective on the basepaths, ranking 7th in stolen bases. This could be a key matchup element if they can get on base against Sears, who struggles with walks.

Both teams' bullpens also offer contrasting narratives. Oakland's bullpen is ranked 15th, a middle-of-the-road position, while the Angels' bullpen is near the bottom at 28th, which could be a deciding factor in a close game.

The betting markets see this as a tightly contested game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. Given the Athletics' slight edge in bullpen and home-field advantage, this game could tilt in their favor if they can capitalize on the pitching situation of the Angels.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Typically, hitters like Anthony Rendon who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as JP Sears.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Taylor Ward has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears's 2111-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 10th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Lawrence Butler is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 92 games (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+14.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.77 vs Oakland Athletics 4.72

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