Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees currently sit at 42-30 and are enjoying a strong season, while the Angels are hovering around .500 with a record of 35-37. In their previous game, the Yankees dropped a second straight game to the Angels, and will hope to bounce back today.

The Yankees will send Ryan Yarbrough to the mound, who has had a solid year with a Win/Loss record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.96. Although he ranks as the 149th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky this season, with a lower xERA of 3.38 indicating potential for improvement. Yarbrough is expected to pitch about 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, which could be a concern against a high-powered Yankees offense ranked 2nd overall in MLB.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled this season, holding a 3-8 record and a troubling ERA of 5.53. His projections indicate he may allow 3.3 earned runs over 5.1 innings, but he also faces a Yankees lineup that excels at drawing walks—ranking 1st in that category.

With the Yankees' offense boasting a potent combination of power—ranking 2nd in home runs—and the Angels' underwhelming performance at the plate, this game favors New York significantly. The Yankees' bullpen also ranks 5th in MLB, promising a strong finish if the game remains close. Given the Yankees' strong form and the Angels' struggles, this matchup is shaping up to be a challenge for Los Angeles as they look to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has utilized his secondary offerings 12.1% more often this season (33.6%) than he did last year (21.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Taylor Ward has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 15.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Ryan Yarbrough's 1898.6-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 6th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ben Rice has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last season's 90-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.42 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 44 games (+9.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 39% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 5.19, New York Yankees 5.99

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Yankees

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