Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Pick – 6/16/2025

The New York Yankees, currently holding a solid 42-28 record, are enjoying a strong season as they welcome the Los Angeles Angels, who sit at 33-37 and have struggled to find their rhythm. With both teams looking to improve their standings, this matchup on June 16, 2025, at Yankee Stadium carries significant weight, especially given the Yankees' impressive offensive rankings—2nd in MLB for both team batting average and home runs.

Clarke Schmidt, projected to start for New York, has had an average season thus far, with a 3-3 record and a respectable 3.60 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he may be due for an uptick in performance; his xERA of 2.95 indicates he has been a bit unlucky. Schmidt's high flyball rate (37 FB%) could pose a challenge against the Angels, who boast a powerful lineup with the 4th most home runs in MLB.

On the other side, Los Angeles will counter with Jose Soriano, who has shown flashes of potential with a 4-5 record and a 3.86 ERA. However, his struggles with walks (11.4 BB%) might be exploited by the Yankees’ patient hitters, who rank 1st in MLB in drawing walks.

The Yankees are significant favorites with a moneyline of -205, reflecting their high implied team total of 4.96 runs for this matchup. Meanwhile, the Angels, projected for just 3.54 runs, will need to capitalize on their power to keep pace. With the Yankees’ bullpen also ranked 4th in MLB, the Angels face an uphill battle in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (57.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 7 batters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Clarke Schmidt ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like DJ LeMahieu tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.01 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4, New York Yankees 4.66

• Date: June 16, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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