Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reid Detmers - Angels
  • David Festa - Twins

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Twins currently sit with a record of 76-67, showcasing an above-average season, while the Angels struggle with a disappointing 59-84 record, marking a rough year.

The matchup features two pitchers with notable differences in their recent performances. David Festa, projected to start for the Twins, has had a rocky season with a 2-5 record and a 4.75 ERA, but his 3.29 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve going forward. Meanwhile, Reid Detmers takes the mound for the Angels with a 5.87 ERA and a 3.95 xFIP, indicating he too has faced his share of misfortune, but his overall performance has been subpar. Festa's average of 4.7 projected innings pitched today could be a concern, yet he projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs, a relatively strong number.

Offensively, the Twins rank 11th in MLB, with a particularly solid showing in batting average (7th) and home runs (8th). In contrast, the Angels rank 27th overall, struggling to find offensive consistency. The projections anticipate the Twins scoring around 5.08 runs, highlighting their potential to capitalize on Detmers’s vulnerabilities on the mound.

Given the favorable statistics and the leading MLB projection system indicating a strong performance for the Twins, they emerge as significant favorites in this matchup, holding an implied team total of 4.57 runs compared to the Angels’ 3.43. With the Twins aiming to solidify their position in the standings, this game represents a crucial opportunity for them to gain momentum as the season progresses.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Among all starters, Reid Detmers's fastball spin rate of 2134 rpm is in the 21st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Niko Kavadas has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jose Miranda has been lucky this year, compiling a .344 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .038 deviation.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Today’s version of the Twins projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .319 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 67 games (+5.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+14.50 Units / 27% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.35 vs Minnesota Twins 4.58

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.