Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels meet for the third game of their series on September 11, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, currently 77-68, are enjoying an above-average season and are positioned well in the standings. In contrast, the Angels, with a disappointing 60-85 record, have struggled mightily throughout the year. In their last matchup, the Twins emerged victorious, defeating the Angels 10-5, showcasing their offensive strength.

Projected to start for the Twins is Zebby Matthews, who has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 7.36. However, his xFIP of 4.13 suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating potential for better performance. Matthews is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, which is above average. Facing him is Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels, whose 2-4 record and ERA of 4.89 reflect a below-average season. Kochanowicz's projections suggest he may struggle, allowing about 3.1 earned runs over 4.8 innings.

Offensively, the Twins rank 11th in MLB, bolstered by players like Willi Castro, who has been instrumental this season. In contrast, the Angels rank 28th in offensive production, with Zach Neto as their best hitter but still lacking the firepower needed to compete effectively. The projections indicate that the Twins are expected to score an average of 5.49 runs, while the Angels are projected to tally around 4.50 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Mickey Moniak is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Zebby Matthews will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bats such as Matt Wallner with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games (+18.10 Units / 113% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.34 vs Minnesota Twins 5.43

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