Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/26/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will host the Los Angeles Angels on April 26, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup given both teams' struggles this season. The Twins, currently sitting at 10-16, are having a tough year, while the Angels are slightly better at 12-13. In their last encounter, the Twins managed to secure a win, one they will look to build on here.

On the mound, the Twins will send out Simeon Woods Richardson, who has had a rough start to the season with a 1-2 record and a 4.74 ERA. His advanced stats suggest he has been unlucky, but the projections indicate he may struggle against a powerful Angels lineup that has already hit 38 home runs this year, ranking 3rd in MLB. Woods Richardson's tendency to give up fly balls could play into the Angels' hands, especially with their strength in power-hitting.

The Angels will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who boasts a solid 3.38 ERA, but his 0-3 record raises questions about his effectiveness. Kikuchi's performance has been average, and he is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.6 innings, which is consistent with his season averages. Despite this, the Angels’ offense has been underwhelming overall, ranking 24th in MLB, particularly in batting average.

As for the Twins, their offense ranks a dismal 27th in MLB, and they will need their best hitters to step up if they hope to turn their season around. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup could be closer than the records suggest, making the Twins' current moneyline of -115 an interesting bet for those looking for value.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Yusei Kikuchi has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Rengifo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mike Trout hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (46 compared to 40.2% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Harrison Bader's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 85.4-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 83.2-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Minnesota Twins offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Kyren Paris has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+13.50 Units / 150% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.49, Minnesota Twins 4.34

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

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