Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Odds – 6/22/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Plesac - Angels
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Los Angeles Angels in an Interleague matchup on June 22, 2024, both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum this season. The Dodgers, boasting a stellar 47-31 record, are enjoying a great season and sit comfortably in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Angels, with a dismal 30-45 record, are struggling mightily and are far from playoff contention.

Yesterday, the Dodgers took the first game of the series in dominant fashion, setting the tone for today's game. The Dodgers are projected to start Tyler Glasnow, one of MLB's elite pitchers, ranked 3rd by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Glasnow has been solid this season with a 7-5 record and a 3.00 ERA, though his 2.33 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. Glasnow is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 7.3 batters on average today.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Zach Plesac, who has struggled in his limited appearances this season. Plesac, with a 1-0 record and a 4.50 ERA, has a concerning 7.12 xFIP, indicating that he's been quite fortunate so far and might be due for regression. Plesac is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 3.8 earned runs, and striking out just 2.8 batters on average today.

The Dodgers' offense, ranked 1st in MLB, has been a powerhouse this season, ranking 3rd in both team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Angels' offense is middle-of-the-road, ranking 17th overall. The disparity in offensive firepower is evident, and with Plesac's high-flyball tendencies (70% FB rate), the Dodgers' powerful lineup could exploit this to their advantage.

The bullpen matchup is equally lopsided, with the Dodgers' bullpen ranked 4th best by advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Angels' bullpen ranks dead last at 30th. This further tilts the scales in favor of the Dodgers.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 76% projected win probability, aligning closely with their implied win probability of 75%. With all signs pointing towards a Dodgers' victory, expect them to continue their strong season and extend their winning streak against the struggling Angels.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Zach Plesac's 90.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 11th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brandon Drury is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starter, Tyler Glasnow has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+7.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.78 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.49

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