Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 5/17/2025

On May 17, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Los Angeles Angels in an exciting Interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers enter this game with a strong record of 29-16, standing firmly atop their division, while the Angels are struggling at 18-25. In their previous encounter, the Dodgers were upset by the Angels and will look to bounce back tonight.

The matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and Tyler Anderson for the Angels. Kershaw, ranked as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has seen better days this season, with projections suggesting he will pitch around 4.4 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs. His underlying numbers indicate that he might struggle today, particularly as he projects to allow 4.2 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

In contrast, Tyler Anderson has had a mixed season, with a solid ERA of 2.58 but an xFIP of 4.74, suggesting some luck may be involved in his performance. Although he projects to pitch 5.0 innings, he might be vulnerable against a powerful Dodgers offense that ranks 1st in MLB this season. The Dodgers excel in home runs, ranking 2nd overall with 73 homers, which could pose a significant threat to Anderson’s high flyball rate of 45%.

The betting odds reflect the Dodgers’ strong positioning, with a moneyline of -235 and an implied team total of 5.40 runs. Meanwhile, the Angels find themselves as heavy underdogs with a moneyline of +200 and a low implied total of 3.60 runs. With the Dodgers’ powerful offense and Anderson’s potential struggles, this game could present a favorable opportunity for bettors looking to back the home team.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (88.3 mph) below where it was last year (89.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In the past week's worth of games, Jorge Soler's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Yoan Moncada, Kyren Paris, Jo Adell, Logan O'Hoppe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Clayton Kershaw to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 96.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.05 Units / 29% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.55, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.62

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

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