Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 5/16/2025

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on May 16, 2025, at Dodger Stadium, the stakes may not be playoff-caliber, but the importance of this Interleague matchup is evident. The Dodgers, boasting a record of 29-15, are significantly outperforming the Angels, who sit at 17-25. Recent trends indicate a strong season for the Dodgers, while the Angels continue to struggle.

The Dodgers' offense ranks 2nd best in MLB, and they excel particularly in generating power, ranking 2nd in team home runs, with 73 bombs this season. Conversely, the Angels, while showing strong pop with the 5th most home runs, struggle in other aspects, ranking 26th in overall offense and 29th in batting average.

On the mound, Dustin May will make the start for the Dodgers. He comes in with a 1-3 record and a 4.08 ERA this season, projected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow approximately 2.2 earned runs. May’s low strikeout rate plays into his favor against an Angels lineup that has the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB. Jack Kochanowicz, slated to start for the Angels, has allowed 3.4 earned runs on average per game this year and holds a troubling 5.23 ERA.

With the Dodgers favored heavily with a moneyline of -295, they are projected to score an impressive 5.97 runs, while the Angels' expected total sits at a mere 3.53 runs. As the game total rests at 9.5 runs, oddsmakers suggest a high-scoring affair, though the Dodgers' dominance on both offense and pitching could very well dictate the game’s outcome.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #4 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Batters such as Taylor Ward with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dustin May who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Kyren Paris, Logan O'Hoppe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his huge platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Max Muncy has big-time power (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Muncy.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.58 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.24, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.84

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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