Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Odds & Picks – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Fulmer - Angels
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On August 19, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Angels at Kauffman Stadium for the first game of their series. The Royals are enjoying a solid season with a record of 69-55, while the Angels are struggling at 53-71. This matchup comes at a crucial time for both teams, as the Royals aim to solidify their standing, while the Angels look to find some momentum.

In their last game, the Royals showcased their offensive prowess with a strong performance, further highlighting their competitive edge in the American League. The projections suggest that Seth Lugo, who has been average with a 3.04 ERA this season, will take the mound for Kansas City. Lugo has been a reliable arm, boasting a 13-7 record and starting 25 games this year. However, advanced metrics indicate he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 3.97 xFIP suggests potential regression.

On the other side, Carson Fulmer will start for the Angels. With a 0-3 record and an ERA of 4.22, Fulmer has struggled to find success this season. His high walk rate of 10.6% could prove detrimental against the Royals, who are one of the least patient offenses, ranking 4th in fewest walks drawn.

The Royals' offense ranks 12th overall in MLB, with a notable 8th place in stolen bases, while the Angels find themselves at 22nd offensively. With an implied team total of 5.22 runs, Kansas City is heavily favored, and given Fulmer's current form, they may capitalize on his control issues.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Carson Fulmer has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 16.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, putting up a .212 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .089 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Niko Kavadas, Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (53.7% compared to 48.2% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Hunter Renfroe has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kansas City Royals bats jointly rank near the top of the league this year (4th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 49 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.8 vs Kansas City Royals 5.52

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