Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off on September 20, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, the stakes are drastically different for these American League West rivals. The Astros, boasting an 83-70 record, are having an above-average season and are vying for playoff positioning. In contrast, the Angels, with a dismal 62-91 record, have been eliminated from division contention.

The Astros are a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -255, suggesting a 69% implied win probability. Meanwhile, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 65% chance to win, indicating a solid edge for Houston. The Angels, despite being heavy underdogs with a +215 moneyline, have a projected win probability 4% higher than the betting market suggests, hinting at potential value for daring bettors.

Justin Verlander will take the mound for the Astros, looking to capitalize on his projected performance. Despite a challenging 5.20 ERA this season, his 4.01 xERA suggests he's been unlucky and could rebound. Verlander is expected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average, while striking out 6.4 batters—numbers that favor Houston against a struggling Angels offense ranked 27th overall.

For the Angels, Tyler Anderson will start, bringing a 3.60 ERA to the table. However, his 4.82 xFIP indicates he's been fortunate this year. Anderson's projections include 5.3 innings pitched and 3.1 earned runs allowed, which could spell trouble against an Astros lineup that ranks 3rd in team batting average.

The Astros' offense, ranked 11th overall, is expected to produce 5.09 runs, while the Angels are projected to score 3.90 runs. Given the Astros' superior bullpen, ranked 11th, compared to the Angels' 28th, Houston's path to victory seems well-paved. With the Angels reeling and the Astros pushing for the postseason, Houston has the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to the average hurler, Tyler Anderson has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.5 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander's change-up utilization has risen by 5% from last year to this one (4.7% to 9.7%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Mauricio Dubon's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 78.4-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros (17.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+17.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+8.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.94 vs Houston Astros 5.28

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