Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction – 4/11/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on April 11, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position this season. With a 5-7 record, the Astros are struggling significantly, ranking 30th in MLB in offensive performance. This upcoming matchup marks the first game of the series between these two American League West rivals, and Houston's deficiencies will be on full display against a strong Angels squad that currently boasts an impressive 8-4 record.

The overall offensive struggles for Houston are glaring, particularly considering they rank 28th in home runs. This matchup pits Astros' pitcher Ronel Blanco, who has an alarming 9.45 ERA and currently ranks 183rd among MLB starters, against Angels' Jack Kochanowicz, who sports a solid 3.27 ERA.

Kochanowicz projects to face a Houston offense that has hit only 7 home runs this season—an attribute that could favor the flyball pitcher, as the Astros may find it difficult to capitalize on his high flyball percentage. Despite their current form, the Astros are favored at -145, suggesting the betting market still expects some bounce-back potential. Given their recent struggles, however, and the Angels' offensive firepower, this game could very well tilt in favor of Los Angeles, especially with their bullpen ranked 7th best, compared to Houston's 12th, further emphasizing the competitive advantage for the Angels.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a big advantage over flyball bats, Jack Kochanowicz and his 51.5% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this matchup going up against 3 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This season, Taylor Ward's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 13.1% last year to just 5.7% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jorge Soler hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco has used his secondary pitches 5.1% more often this season (66.9%) than he did last season (61.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

There has been a decrease in Jose Altuve's average exit velocity this season, from 86.5 mph last year to 83.2 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• Mike Trout has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+11.20 Units / 160% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

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