Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Pick – 4/13/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros face off against the Los Angeles Angels in a pivotal American League West matchup on April 13, 2025, at Minute Maid Park. Both teams are coming off a decisive game yesterday, where the Angels triumphed over the Astros with a score of 4-1. The Astros, struggling with a 6-8 record, are looking to turn their fortunes around, while the Angels boast a solid 9-5 start to the season.

Hayden Wesneski is projected to take the mound for the Astros, and he’s been somewhat unlucky this season with a 3.75 ERA, but his 2.21 xERA indicates that he could improve going forward. In his last start, he pitched well, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs. However, the Astros' offense ranks 23rd in the league, suggesting they may struggle to support him against a powerful Angels lineup.

On the other side, Kyle Hendricks is slated to start for the Angels. Despite an impressive 1.64 ERA, his 4.04 xFIP suggests he might be due for a regression. Hendricks has also been effective, allowing no earned runs in his last start. The Angels’ offense ranks 7th overall, bolstered by a league-leading 27 home runs this season, which presents a significant challenge for Wesneski, who is a high-flyball pitcher.

With the Astros being favored at -155 and an implied team total of 4.66 runs, they have a chance to capitalize on their home field advantage. However, with their recent struggles and the Angels’ offensive prowess, this game could be closer than expected. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks has relied on his change-up 5% more often this season (44.4%) than he did last season (39.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Typically, hitters like Mike Trout who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hayden Wesneski.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mike Trout hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hayden Wesneski's 2136.6-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 22nd percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 83 games at home (+0.95 Units / 1% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.69, Houston Astros 5.03

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Hayden Wesneski - Astros

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