Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros welcome the Los Angeles Angels to Minute Maid Park on September 22, 2024, they find themselves in a favorable position. The Astros are sporting an 85-70 record, indicating a solid season as they push towards the postseason. In contrast, the Angels have had a rough campaign, with a 62-93 record, and have been eliminated from division contention.

Pitching for the Astros is right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has been slightly unlucky this year. With a 4.68 ERA but a more promising 4.05 xFIP, there’s reason to believe he could outperform his season averages. Arrighetti is projected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs today. The Astros' offense, ranked 10th overall and 3rd in batting average, is poised to support him against a struggling Angels squad.

On the Angels' side, right-hander Griffin Canning will take the mound. His 5.16 ERA suggests a challenging season, and facing a low-strikeout Astros offense doesn't bode well for him. Canning is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.6 hits over 5.2 innings, a potentially tough outing given the Astros' firepower.

The Angels’ offense, ranked 26th overall, will look to Taylor Ward, who has been productive over the past week with a .321 batting average and two home runs, to spark some life into their lineup. However, their bullpen, ranked 29th, poses another hurdle against the Astros' offense, which has been adept at capitalizing on weak pitching.

Although the betting market heavily favors the Astros with a moneyline of -270, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, offers some intrigue by suggesting there may be value in betting on the Angels due to their win probability being understated. Nevertheless, with the Astros playing at home and their considerable strengths, they remain the favorites to close out this series on a high note.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has used his change-up 5.2% more often this season (27%) than he did last season (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, compiling a .217 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .082 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

In his last game started, Spencer Arrighetti was rolling and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 18.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 152 games (+18.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.18 vs Houston Astros 5.35

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.