Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field in what is expected to be a competitive matchup. The Guardians enter this game with a record of 31-26, showcasing an above-average season, while the Angels trail with a 26-31 record, indicating a below-average performance. In their last game, the Angels struggled against the Guardians, who took the win decisively.

Cleveland’s Gavin Williams will take the mound, boasting a solid reputation as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His season has been respectable with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.27, although his 4.93 xERA suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. Williams’s ability to strike out 6.6 batters per game and limit earned runs to an average of 2.3 gives the Guardians a distinct advantage, particularly against an Angels lineup that ranks 24th in MLB offense and 27th in batting average.

On the other hand, Jack Kochanowicz is projected to start for the Angels, and his season has not gone as well. With a 3-6 record and a poor ERA of 5.07, he faces a daunting task against a Guardians offense that, despite ranking 22nd in MLB, can still capitalize on his struggles. The Guardians bullpen is also rated 15th, providing them with a slight edge over the Angels’ 25th-ranked relief unit.

Cleveland is favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting a strong likelihood of victory. As both teams battle it out, the Guardians will look to build on their recent success while the Angels aim to rebound from a disappointing series. With the Guardians projected to score 4.46 runs, they hold the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has relied on his non-fastballs 10.7% more often this season (32.2%) than he did last season (21.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Logan O'Hoppe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nolan Jones's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.5-mph now compared to just 88.3-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+11.70 Units / 98% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 68% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.76, Cleveland Guardians 4.32

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

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