Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/21/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -170, Reds -1.5 150
• Money Line: Angels 115, Reds -135
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 45%
• Cincinnati Reds - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 50.59%
• Cincinnati Reds - 49.41%

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Los Angeles Angels at Great American Ball Park on April 21, 2024. The Reds, with a record of 11-9, are having a good season so far, while the Angels, with a record of 9-12, are struggling.

The Reds will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start Frankie Montas, a right-handed pitcher. Montas has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.34, which is average. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montas is below average among starting pitchers in MLB.

On the other hand, the Angels will be the away team and will start Jose Soriano, also a right-handed pitcher. Soriano has started two games this year, with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.80, which is below average. However, our Power Rankings consider Soriano to be above average among starting pitchers in MLB.

The Reds offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league. The Angels offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 20th best in MLB, with an average team batting average but a strong ranking of third in home runs.

Looking at the projections, Montas is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. However, he is projected to allow a high number of hits and walks. Soriano, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters. He is also projected to struggle with hits and walks.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.5 runs, indicating a high-scoring game. The Reds are the favorites with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. The Angels have a moneyline of +115, implying a 45% win probability.

Based on the projections and implied win probabilities, the Reds have a slight advantage in this game. However, the Angels' power hitting could pose a challenge for Montas, who tends to give up flyballs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Trout in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Miguel Sano, Mickey Moniak, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Frankie Montas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 7 games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Angels vs Reds Prediction: Angels 4.88 - Reds 4.54

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.