Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/19/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -195, Reds -1.5 165
• Money Line: Angels 105, Reds -125
• Total (Over/Under): 9.5

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 47%
• Cincinnati Reds - 53%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 47.35%
• Cincinnati Reds - 52.65%

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds will be hosting the Los Angeles Angels in an exciting Interleague matchup at Great American Ball Park on April 19, 2024. The Reds, with a season record of 9-9, are having an average season so far, while the Angels, at 9-10, are experiencing a slightly below-average season.

The Reds are slated to start the talented left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been impressive this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lodolo ranks as the 23rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. On the other hand, the Angels are expected to start Tyler Anderson, who has struggled this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league.

Lodolo has started one game this year, boasting a perfect 1-0 record and an excellent ERA of 0.00. However, his 2.30 xFIP, which measures expected fielding independent pitching, suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Anderson, having started three games, holds a solid 2-1 record with an excellent ERA of 1.47. However, his 5.00 xFIP indicates that he may not sustain his current level of success.

In their last game, the Reds faced the Mariners and suffered a 5-1 defeat. The Angels, in their previous game against the Rays, also fell short by a score of 2-1. Despite their recent losses, the Reds were considered slight favorites in their last game with a closing Moneyline price of +110, while the Angels were underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +120.

The Reds offense ranks as the 15th best in the league, displaying average performance in terms of overall talent. They excel in stolen bases, ranking first in MLB, but are average in batting average and home runs. On the other hand, the Angels offense ranks 14th overall, also considered average. However, they boast the third most home runs in the league, showcasing their power-hitting ability.

When it comes to their bullpens, both the Reds and the Angels have struggled. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings rank the Reds bullpen as the 25th best in MLB, while the Angels bullpen is ranked 29th.

Heading into this game, THE BAT X projects the Reds to have a 54% chance of winning, while the Angels have a 46% chance. The current moneyline reflects a tight matchup, with the Reds at -125 and the Angels at +105, indicating a close game according to betting markets.

As we look to this exciting matchup, Nick Lodolo's high strikeout rate and the Reds' ability to capitalize on stolen bases could give them an advantage over the Angels' high-strikeout offense. However, Lodolo's tendency to give up flyballs could be problematic against the powerful Angels lineup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's 88.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 3rd percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.201) implies that Jo Adell has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .293 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Santiago Espinal's 1% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) ranks in the 14th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 39 games at home (+16.05 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.19 Units / 17% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has only hit the RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 games at home (-2.50 Units / -19% ROI)

Angels vs Reds Prediction: Angels 4.58 - Reds 4.6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.