Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Picks 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Suarez - Angels
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels prepare for their matchup on September 25, 2024, both teams find themselves languishing at the bottom of the standings. The White Sox, with a dismal 37-120 record, have endured a challenging season, while the Angels have also struggled, sitting at 63-94. Despite the lack of playoff implications, this American League matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field offers intriguing betting angles.

The White Sox will send Davis Martin to the mound. Martin, a right-hander, holds a 0-5 record with a 4.27 ERA this season—an average performance but with a winless record to show for it. The advanced-stat Power Rankings slot him as the 249th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, reflecting his struggles. The projections suggest Martin will pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.5 walks while striking out 5.0 batters.

Opposing him is Angels lefty Jose Suarez, who has a 1-2 record with a concerning 6.08 ERA. His xFIP of 4.39 suggests he's been unlucky and could see improvement. Suarez is projected to go 5.1 innings, yielding 2.6 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.9 walks, with 5.0 strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams have struggled mightily. The White Sox rank dead last in MLB in offense, batting average, and home runs, while the Angels are not far ahead, ranking 26th in offense and 28th in batting average. However, the Angels do have a slight edge in power, ranking 22nd in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a tightly contested game, giving both teams a 50% win probability. However, with betting markets slightly favoring the Angels at -115, there's a narrative forming that they might have the upper hand. Keep an eye on the Angels' Jack Lopez, who has been swinging a hot bat with a .474 average and 1.158 OPS over the last week.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Chicago White Sox have 7 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Jose Suarez today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Zach Neto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2442 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2387 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Jacob Amaya has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 87.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Korey Lee ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.20 Units / 39% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.64 vs Chicago White Sox 4.55

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