Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As two struggling teams wrap up their series, the Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2024. Both teams have endured tough seasons, with the White Sox sitting at 38-120 and the Angels not faring much better at 63-95. With neither team in playoff contention, this matchup is more about pride and evaluating talent for the future. In the previous game, the White Sox managed a tight 4-3 victory over the Angels, a rare bright spot in their otherwise dismal season.

On the mound, the White Sox will start Chris Flexen, who brings a challenging 2-15 record and a 5.15 ERA. Despite his struggles, Flexen is projected to go 5.2 innings on average today, allowing 2.8 earned runs and 5.3 hits. His ability to limit walks with just 1.4 on average could be a key factor against the Angels' lackluster offense, ranked 26th in MLB.

The Angels counter with Tyler Anderson, who boasts a slightly more favorable 10-14 record and a 3.70 ERA. However, his 4.80 xFIP indicates some luck has been on his side. Anderson's high-flyball tendency may pair advantageously against the White Sox's power-starved lineup, which ranks last in home runs this season.

Offensively, both teams rank at the bottom of the league, with the White Sox dead last in overall offense, batting average, and home runs. The Angels hold marginally better rankings, including 22nd in home runs and 10th in stolen bases, which could prove useful in generating scoring opportunities.

Despite the poor records, this game is projected to be competitive. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Angels a 53% win probability, slightly higher than their betting market implied probability of 52%. While the teams might not have much to play for in terms of standings, individual performances could shape roster decisions moving forward.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to the average pitcher, Tyler Anderson has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .218 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brandon Drury has suffered from bad luck given the .080 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O'Hoppe, Jack Lopez, Mickey Moniak, Niko Kavadas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (63.1% compared to 54.5% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.30 Units / 45% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 47 games (+17.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.7 vs Chicago White Sox 4.21

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