Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/4/2025

On June 4, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Red Sox sitting at 29-34 and the Angels at 28-32, but the stakes are high as they look to gain momentum. Last night, the Angels managed to secure a victory in a tight contest against the Red Sox, adding to the drama of this series.

The Red Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the mound, who has had a rocky season thus far, posting a 4.78 ERA and ranking as the 157th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he could have an edge against the Angels’ high-strikeout lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. Giolito's ability to induce weak contact could be beneficial, especially given that he is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Jose Soriano, who has been solid with a 3.41 ERA, ranking him 50th among MLB starters. However, the projections indicate he may be due for some regression, as his metrics suggest he has been a bit fortunate this season. Soriano will need to navigate a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 9th in MLB, particularly given that they have the 3rd most strikeouts.

With the Red Sox's offense showing promise and their bullpen ranked 6th, they have the tools to capitalize on the Angels’ struggles, particularly with a high implied team total of 5.23 runs. The Angels, despite their power ranking 3rd in home runs, will need to find a way to overcome their overall offensive woes, which have them ranked 25th. This matchup promises to be a close contest, and the Red Sox may hold an advantage given their recent form and home-field support.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.5% less often this season (7.3%) than he did last year (13.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Logan O'Hoppe has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.4-mph average to last season's 94.6-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Scott Kingery, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball batters like Wilyer Abreu generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.46 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 away games (+8.50 Units / 57% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 5.16, Boston Red Sox 5.06

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox

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