Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/2/2025

On June 2, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Red Sox sitting at 29-32 and the Angels at 26-32. The Red Sox are coming off a solid 3-1 victory against the Atlanta Braves yesterday, while the Angels lost 4-2 to the Cleveland Guardians in their last outing.

The Red Sox will send Richard Fitts to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has posted an impressive 2.70 ERA this season, despite a 0-2 record. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat lucky, as his 4.42 xFIP indicates potential regression. Fitts projects to pitch only 1.5 innings today, which raises concerns about his effectiveness. Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson will take the hill for the Angels. The lefty has a solid 3.39 ERA but also carries a concerning 5.20 xFIP, hinting that he might be due for a downturn as well.

From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Angels sit at 22nd, struggling to generate consistent offense. Given the current odds, the Red Sox are favored with a high implied team total of 5.14 runs, suggesting they are expected to capitalize on the Angels' pitching struggles. With the Red Sox's offensive firepower and Fitts's potential to outperform expectations, this matchup leans in favor of Boston as they look to build momentum in their season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to the average starter, Tyler Anderson has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.3 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

With a 1.87 deviation between Richard Fitts's 5.31 K/9 and his 7.18 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and should see better results in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Trevor Story is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Boston Red Sox bats jointly rank among the best in the majors this year () when assessing their 91-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+6.15 Units / 47% ROI)
• Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+22.70 Units / 284% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 38.09, Boston Red Sox 5.4

• Date: June 2, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox

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