Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/15/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Los Angeles Angels at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 15, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of disappointing seasons. The Orioles currently sit at 29-40, while the Angels are slightly better at 33-36. Although the Angels aren’t contending for a playoff spot, they still possess a potent offense, ranking 5th in home runs despite their overall poor performance, including a 27th rank in team batting average.

In their last outing, the Angels dropped a tightly contested game to the Orioles, who are looking to build momentum after a recent win. This matchup marks the third game in the series between these two teams, and both will be hoping to capitalize on their pitching matchups.

Cade Povich, projected to start for the Orioles, comes into this game with a 1-5 record and an ERA of 5.46, which has been indicative of a tough season. However, advanced projections suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform better moving forward, with a 3.89 xFIP. Povich is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. In contrast, Yusei Kikuchi, starting for the Angels, boasts an impressive 2.92 ERA but has faced some luck challenges, as evidenced by his higher xFIP of 4.68.

From a betting perspective, the Orioles' moneyline is set at -135, indicating a close contest, while the Angels are at +115. The Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs, suggesting confidence in their offense against Kikuchi. Ultimately, this game could hinge on whether Povich can rise to the occasion and if the Orioles' offense can exploit Kikuchi's weaknesses, especially given that they rank 18th in team offense this season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Yusei Kikuchi has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Travis d'Arnaud has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 17.4% seasonal rate to 37.5% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jorge Soler hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.46 rate is a good deal higher than his 4.36 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Ramon Laureano's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83.1-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Coby Mayo, Gunnar Henderson, Gary Sanchez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+9.40 Units / 67% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.65, Baltimore Orioles 4.82

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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