Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/13/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on June 13, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both teams are looking to improve their standings. The Orioles currently sit at 27-40, struggling this season, while the Angels are slightly better at 33-34 but also lack consistency. This game marks the first in a series between the two clubs.

Charlie Morton will take the mound for Baltimore tonight. Morton is having a tough season, holding a 2-7 record and an alarming ERA of 6.59. However, advanced metrics suggest that Morton might be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP sits at 4.48, indicating he has been a bit unlucky. He faces Angels' Jack Kochanowicz, who also has had his share of struggles, boasting a 5.61 ERA and a 3-7 record. Kochanowicz's projections suggest he is in for a challenging outing, as he is likely to allow an average of 3.4 earned runs while striking out just 3.3 batters.

Looking at offensive capabilities, the Orioles rank 21st in MLB, while the Angels are slightly worse at 22nd. Notably, the Angels have been explosive with home runs, ranking 4th in the league, which could play a crucial role in this matchup. However, both teams struggle to draw walks, with the Angels sitting 2nd lowest and the Orioles at 6th lowest in that category.

Betting lines favor the Orioles, currently set as -170 favorites, reflecting their implied team total of 5.90 runs. If Morton's luck changes, Baltimore might capitalize on its opportunities and raise its dismal record. Expect a high-scoring affair as the Game Total is pegged at 10.5 runs, hinting at an offensive showdown.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Among all starting pitchers, Jack Kochanowicz's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 81st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Logan O'Hoppe has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 18.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell, Scott Kingery).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Charlie Morton is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ramon Laureano has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 83.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 away games (+9.10 Units / 60% ROI)
• Jack Kochanowicz has hit the Strikeouts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.15 Units / 83% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 5.05, Baltimore Orioles 5.87

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles

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