Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the 2024 MLB season nears its conclusion, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels find themselves in the fringes of contention. Both teams have struggled significantly, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 60-68, while the Angels sit at 54-74. The Blue Jays snapped a two-game losing streak with a win over the Angels yesterday, topping them 5-3, which could provide a much-needed boost of confidence.

In today’s matchup at Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays are set to start Chris Bassitt, who has been firmly in the middle of the pack among MLB starters, ranked 81st overall. His average performance features a 4.34 ERA and a win/loss record of 9-12 through 25 starts. In Bassitt’s last outing, he pitched five innings, allowing three earned runs while striking out five batters. The projections indicate he will pitch nearly six innings while yielding around 2.5 earned runs.

On the other side, Jack Kochanowicz has had a tougher time on the mound, struggling with a 6.53 ERA. Projected to go about 5.2 innings and allow approximately 2.9 earned runs, he faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 15th in overall offensive performance but is particularly weak in power numbers, sitting 27th in home runs. Given that the Blue Jays exhibit a low-strikeout offense, Kochanowicz may find it challenging to exploit his own strengths.

With the Blue Jays favored at -185 and boasting a projected team total of 5.14 runs, their chances of securing a win seem solid against an Angels squad that is clearly floundering. As both teams attempt to build some momentum, today’s game presents an opportunity for the Blue Jays to further assert their dominance over the struggling Angels.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all SPs, Jack Kochanowicz's fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 86th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mickey Moniak has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.4-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Logan O'Hoppe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average starter, Chris Bassitt has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 6.0 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Daulton Varsho tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games (+19.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Will Wagner has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+8.05 Units / 62% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.22 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.96

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