Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Fulmer - Angels
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 24, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling this season, with the Blue Jays sitting at 61-68 and the Angels at 54-75. This matchup is particularly crucial as it marks the third game of their series, and both teams are looking to improve their disappointing records.

The Blue Jays will send Bowden Francis to the mound. Although he has had an average ERA of 4.38 this season, his performance profile shows he has the potential to go deep into games, averaging 5.3 innings pitched. However, his tendency to allow 4.5 hits and 1.2 walks per game raises concerns, especially given the Blue Jays' 24th ranked bullpen. In contrast, Francis has a solid 6-3 record, which could provide a morale boost for the home crowd at Rogers Centre.

On the other hand, Carson Fulmer, who will take the hill for the Angels, has been struggling mightily. With an ERA of 4.24 and no wins to his name this season (0-4 record), his projections indicate he will likely pitch 4.4 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs. Fulmer’s poor performance is compounded by his 28th ranked bullpen, creating an uphill battle for Los Angeles.

Statistically, the Blue Jays rank 15th in overall offensive prowess, but their 27th ranking in home runs and stolen bases highlights a concerning lack of firepower. Joey Loperfido has been the team's standout hitter recently, boasting a .500 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Angels, ranked 23rd offensively, rely on Nolan Schanuel, who has been somewhat effective but not enough to turn their struggles around.

With the Blue Jays a betting favorite at -165 and a projected team total of 4.71 runs, they appear poised to capitalize on the Angels' woes. The leading MLB projection system sees Toronto as having a favorable edge for this matchup, potentially turning the tide in their favor.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Carson Fulmer has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, posting an 8.60 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.74 — a 0.86 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Taylor Ward usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Niko Kavadas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's 2380-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 77th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the past 7 days, George Springer's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.9% up to 30.4%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 54 games (+21.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 away games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.42 vs Toronto Blue Jays 5.09

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