Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 5/19/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels on May 19, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a season record of 24-23, are having an average season, while the struggling Angels hold a record of 17-29, making it a terrible season for them.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who has a 2-2 win/loss record this year. With an ERA of 3.75, Lorenzen has been performing well, although his 4.57 xFIP suggests that he may not be able to sustain his current level of success. On the other side, the Angels will likely start right-hander Jose Soriano, who holds a 1-4 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.72. While his ERA is good, his 4.27 xERA suggests that he may face challenges going forward.

Lorenzen, known for his low strikeout rate, will face an Angels offense that ranks sixth in the league for strikeouts. This could give Lorenzen an advantage, capitalizing on the Angels' weakness. Meanwhile, Soriano, a high-groundball pitcher, will face a powerful Rangers offense that ranks fifth in the league for home runs. If Soriano can keep the ball on the ground, he may limit the Rangers' ability to capitalize on their home-run power.

In terms of team rankings, the Rangers have the 10th best offense in MLB, excelling in batting average and home runs. However, their stolen bases rank a lowly 25th. The Angels, with the 11th best offense, have been average in terms of team batting average, but excel in home runs. Their stolen bases, however, rank 27th in the league.

According to the projections, the Rangers have an implied win probability of 59%, making them the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155. The Angels, with an implied win probability of 41%, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +135. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for the total number of runs scored.

Overall, the Rangers have the advantage in this game with their strong offense and the matchup of Lorenzen against the high-strikeout Angels. However, the Angels cannot be counted out, as Soriano's ability to induce ground balls may neutralize the Rangers' power. It will be an intriguing game to watch as both teams look to secure a victory in this American League West clash.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (51% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #4 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

When it comes to his home runs, Jo Adell has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 35.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today’s version of the Angels projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen has relied on his sinker 10.3% more often this season (22.1%) than he did last season (11.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Travis Jankowski's 0.5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers hitters as a unit rank among the best in the majors since the start of last season (2nd-) as it relates to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.08 vs Texas Rangers 4.45

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