Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 5/18/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
  • Jose Urena - Rangers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Los Angeles Angels on May 18, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a season record of 23-23, are having an average season, while the struggling Angels hold a record of 17-28.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Urena, who has had a solid season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Urena is ranked #308 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in MLB. However, he has shown promise with a 3.62 ERA, which is good. It's worth noting that his 4.28 xFIP suggests that he may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who is ranked #36 in MLB. Sandoval has a 5.00 ERA, which is below average, but his 3.46 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Rangers offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the #10 best in MLB. They excel in team batting average (#2) and home runs (#5), but struggle in stolen bases (#25). The Angels offense, while not as strong, ranks as the #13 best in MLB, with solid rankings in team batting average (#12) and home runs (#3), but a poor ranking in stolen bases (#27).

The Rangers' best hitter this season has been Leody Taveras, who has been performing well over the last 7 games. The Angels' best hitter during this period has been Kevin Pillar, who has been on a hot streak.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Rangers are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Angels, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Patrick Sandoval's four-seamer utilization has fallen by 7.9% from last year to this one (25.5% to 17.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Luis Rengifo is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jose Urena's 94.5-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 82nd percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Jonah Heim's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.77 ft/sec last year to 24.9 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Corey Seager hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kevin Pillar has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.00 Units / 160% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.78 vs Texas Rangers 4.24

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