Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers Pick For 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on September 7, 2024, the stakes may not be playoff-related, but both teams are looking to finish the season on a high note. The Rangers currently sit with a record of 68-74, while the Angels are struggling at 59-82. This matchup marks the third game in the series, and the Rangers will look to capitalize on their home field advantage at Globe Life Field.

In their last outing, the Rangers had a tough game against the Angels, with the Angels winning that game 5-1. The Rangers will send Jack Leiter to the mound, who has had a rough season with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 11.78. However, his xFIP of 5.81 suggests he may be due for some positive regression. Leiter is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings and has the potential to strike out 5.4 batters, but he also faces challenges with an average of 1.7 walks and 4.2 hits allowed.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Tyler Anderson, who has a more reliable record of 10-12 and a solid ERA of 3.55. Anderson projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. However, his xFIP of 4.87 indicates that he might be in line for some regression as well, especially given his below-average strikeout rate of 4.6 batters.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 23rd in the league, while the Angels are at 26th, making this matchup particularly crucial for both offenses to find some rhythm. Wyatt Langford has emerged as the Rangers' best hitter over the last week, with a .375 batting average and 1.153 OPS. Conversely, Taylor Ward has been a bright spot for the Angels, boasting a .348 batting average and 1.249 OPS over the same span.

With the Rangers favored at -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, they will look to leverage their stronger bullpen, currently ranked 12th in MLB, against the Angels' struggling bullpen, which sits at 28th. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 4.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Drury hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing batters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jonah Heim has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 83-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 88 games (+8.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.23 vs Texas Rangers 4.54

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