Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers Pick For 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On September 5, 2024, the Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rangers sitting at 67-73 and the Angels at 58-81. The Rangers' lackluster performance has them ranked 23rd in MLB offense, while the Angels are even further down at 26th. Despite these challenges, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting an implied win probability of 59%.

The matchup features left-handed pitcher Cody Bradford for the Rangers, who has had a solid year with a 4-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.21. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 3.92, indicating potential regression. Bradford is projected to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs on average, which is a promising sign against an Angels lineup that has struggled to generate offense.

On the other side, the Angels will send Jack Kochanowicz to the mound. With a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.96, his performance has been underwhelming, and the projections don’t favor him either, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Kochanowicz is expected to give up 2.6 earned runs over 5.2 innings, and his elevated projections for hits and walks could further complicate matters against a Rangers offense that, despite its low ranking, has shown signs of life recently.

Wyatt Langford has been the standout performer for the Rangers, leading the team in the last week with a .304 batting average and 1.060 OPS. In contrast, Mickey Moniak has shone for the Angels, showcasing a .333 batting average and a powerful 1.257 OPS over the same span.

With a game total of 8.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Rangers, who are projected to score an average of 4.68 runs, while the Angels are looking at an average of 3.82 runs. Given the current trends and the matchup on the mound, the Rangers appear to have the upper hand in this clash.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all SPs, Jack Kochanowicz's fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 87th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Zach Neto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nathaniel Lowe has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 81.3-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games at home (+15.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 88 games (+6.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• Josh Jung has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+6.10 Units / 55% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.77 vs Texas Rangers 4.68

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