Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays Pick For 4/18/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 18, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -155, Rays -1.5 135
• Money Line: Angels 135, Rays -155
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 41%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 43.94%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 56.06%

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on April 18, 2024, at Tropicana Field. As the home team, the Rays will look to capitalize on their above-average season so far, with a record of 10-9. The Angels, on the other hand, have had an average season with a record of 9-9.

Ryan Pepiot is projected to start for the Rays, while Griffin Canning is expected to take the mound for the Angels. Pepiot, a right-handed pitcher, has shown promise this season, ranking as the #66 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, Canning has struggled, being considered one of the worst pitchers in the league.

Pepiot has started three games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-2. While his ERA sits at 5.40, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Canning, on the other hand, has started three games as well, but has yet to secure a win. His ERA stands at a concerning 9.88, but his xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offensive performance, the Rays rank 22nd in MLB this season, while the Angels rank 16th. However, the Rays have shown strength in team batting average, ranking 9th, as well as in home runs and stolen bases, where they rank 4th and 2nd, respectively. The Angels, on the other hand, have excelled in team home runs, ranking 3rd, but have struggled in stolen bases, ranking 27th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Rays are considered average, ranking 19th, while the Angels have struggled, ranking 28th. This could give the Rays an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Rays are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 59%. They have a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. The Angels, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 41% and an average implied team total of 3.84 runs.

Overall, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Rays to capitalize on their above-average season and offensive prowess. With Pepiot projected to perform well and the Angels' struggles on both the mound and in their bullpen, the Rays have a favorable position heading into the game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Angels will be looking to turn their season around and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has relied on his slider 11.8% less often this season (17.9%) than he did last year (29.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Projected catcher Logan O'Hoppe projects as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games at home (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.19 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Angels vs Rays Prediction: Angels 4.2 - Rays 4.52

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