Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 7/23/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will host the Los Angeles Angels on July 23, 2024, at T-Mobile Park for the second game of their series. The Mariners, currently holding a 53-49 record, are having an above-average season. In contrast, the Angels are struggling with a 43-57 record. This American League West matchup is crucial for the Mariners as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and gain ground in the standings.

Seattle will send Logan Gilbert to the mound. Gilbert has been impressive this season, boasting a 2.79 ERA over 20 starts, which is excellent. However, his 3.46 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Gilbert's projections for today are promising, expecting him to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 6.2 batters. Despite his favorable projections, Gilbert's high hit and walk allowances could be areas of concern.

The Angels will counter with Jose Soriano. Soriano, with a respectable 3.71 ERA over 14 starts, has been a solid performer. His projections for today include pitching 5.3 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, and striking out 5.6 batters. Soriano faces a Mariners offense that ranks 1st in strikeouts, which could work to his advantage given his low strikeout rate (20.0 K%).

Offensively, the Mariners rank 28th in MLB, struggling with a team batting average that places them last. However, they do have some power, ranking 11th in home runs. Victor Robles has been their standout hitter over the past week, batting .500 with a 1.105 OPS. On the other side, the Angels' offense is slightly better, ranking 24th, with a team batting average at 21st. Zach Neto has been hot for the Angels, hitting .400 with a 1.137 OPS over the last seven games.

Both bullpens are weak, with the Mariners ranked 24th and the Angels 27th. This game could come down to which starter can go deeper and limit damage. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a 59% chance of winning, slightly below their implied probability of 62%. Given Seattle's better overall season and Gilbert's stellar ERA, the Mariners look to have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano's 97.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 100th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luis Rengifo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Los Angeles Angels offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert has averaged 19.8 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cal Raleigh has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 89.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 away games (+13.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+8.15 Units / 63% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.53 vs Seattle Mariners 3.89

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