Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Best Bet – 5/31/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Los Angeles Angels in an American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 31-27, are having an above-average season, while the struggling Angels hold a record of 21-35.

The Mariners will have the home-field advantage in this game, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryan Woo. Woo has been performing well this season, boasting a 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 1.66. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

The Angels will counter with right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano, who has started eight games this year. Soriano holds a 2-5 win/loss record and a solid ERA of 3.61. Like Woo, his projections indicate average performance in terms of innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, hits allowed, and walks.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Mariners rank as the 26th best team in MLB, while the Angels sit at 12th. The Mariners have an average team batting average and rank 13th in home runs, but their offense struggles in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Angels have a solid offense, ranking 12th in team batting average and 3rd in home runs, but they struggle in stolen bases.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Mariners' bullpen ranks 21st in MLB, while the Angels' bullpen ranks last at 30th. This suggests that the Mariners have a slight advantage in terms of relief pitching.

In the last seven games, the Mariners' best hitter has been Julio Rodriguez, recording 10 hits, 4 runs, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs. Meanwhile, the Angels' best hitter over the same period has been Luis Rengifo, with 11 hits, 7 runs, 1 home run, and an impressive batting average of .478.

The game total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Mariners are considered the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% chance of winning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Mariners as the favorites with a 59% win probability.

As the Mariners and Angels take the field, both teams will be looking to secure a victory. With their stronger pitching and slightly better offensive rankings, the Mariners have the edge in this matchup according to the projections. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Angels will be eager to prove themselves and defy the odds.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jose Soriano in the 80th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Willie Calhoun's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 24.98 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.43 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Los Angeles grades out as the #4 team in the game when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (16.2% rate since the start of last season).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo's 94.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 75th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.41 vs Seattle Mariners 3.93

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.