Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 6/16/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Joyce - Angels
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Angels will wrap up their three-game Interleague series on June 16, 2024, at Oracle Park. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Giants posting a 34-37 record and the Angels faring worse at 28-42. The Giants are having a below-average season, while the Angels are in the midst of a terrible campaign. Yesterday, the Angels narrowly defeated the Giants 4-3, even though San Francisco was the favorite with a closing Moneyline price of -140.

Kyle Harrison will take the mound for the Giants. The left-hander, who is ranked as the 165th best starting pitcher, has a respectable 3.96 ERA but a higher 4.47 xERA, suggesting he might regress. Harrison's season record stands at 4-3 from 14 starts. In his last outing on June 10, Harrison pitched well, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run, 3 strikeouts, 4 hits, and no walks. However, he is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.3 innings today, which is about average.

For the Angels, right-handed pitcher Ben Joyce gets the nod, marking his first start of the season. Joyce has struggled mightily, sporting a horrendous 22.50 ERA over 3 bullpen appearances. Despite this, his 4.35 xFIP suggests he has been extremely unlucky and could perform better. Joyce is expected to pitch just 1 inning, allowing 0.5 earned runs on average.

Offensively, both teams are quite average. The Giants rank 15th overall but have struggled with power, ranking 21st in home runs. Meanwhile, the Angels rank 16th overall, bolstered by their 8th-best home run ranking and 7th-best stolen base ranking. Taylor Ward has been a bright spot for the Angels, leading the team in RBIs and home runs. Logan O'Hoppe has been particularly hot over the last week, boasting a .550 batting average and 1.621 OPS. For the Giants, Heliot Ramos has been their best hitter recently, with a .320 batting average and .997 OPS over the last seven days.

The Giants' bullpen is the best in MLB, while the Angels' bullpen ranks last, which could play a significant role as the game progresses. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are projected to win with a 57% probability. With the Giants as big favorites at -175 and the Angels as underdogs at +150, this matchup leans heavily towards San Francisco, particularly given their superior bullpen and home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Ben Joyce will "start" for Los Angeles Angels today but will fill the role of an opener and may not stay in the game more than a couple frames.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Nolan Schanuel's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.14 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Kyle Harrison will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his home runs, Michael Conforto has been unlucky this year. His 25.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 57.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games (+9.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.23 vs San Francisco Giants 4.69

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.