Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 7/21/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Fulmer - Angels
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The American League West basement dwellers clash on July 21, 2024, as the Oakland Athletics host the Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Coliseum. Both teams are enduring rough seasons, with the Athletics holding a 39-61 record and the Angels sitting at 41-57. Neither team is in contention, making this series more about pride and future evaluations rather than playoff implications.

The Athletics are projected to send Joey Estes to the mound. Estes, a right-hander, holds a 4-4 record with a lackluster 5.29 ERA after 12 starts this season. However, deeper metrics suggest that Estes has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.21 xERA points to a better performance than his conventional stats indicate. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Estes to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which would be a slightly above-average outing.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Carson Fulmer. Fulmer has split his season between the bullpen and the rotation, yet he is also among the lower end of starters in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fulmer's 3.45 ERA looks shiny, but his 4.34 xFIP hints at potential regression. He is projected to go 4.3 innings, giving up 2.3 earned runs, which suggests he's been playing with fire and might get burned against the Athletics.

Offensively, the Athletics have the edge in the power department, ranking 4th in team home runs, despite a lowly 28th place in batting average. The A's have struggled to string hits together but can change the game with one swing. On the other hand, the Angels' offense is slightly worse overall, listed as 23rd, but they rank a solid 7th in stolen bases, indicating they can manufacture runs when needed.

Bullpen-wise, the Athletics hold an advantage. Their bullpen is ranked 13th, while the Angels languish at 27th. This disparity could play a crucial role late in the game, particularly if both starters exit early as projected.

With a close game anticipated, the betting markets slightly favor the Athletics with a moneyline set at -135, implying a 55% win probability. Meanwhile, the Angels have a moneyline of +115, implying a 45% win probability. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a relatively high-scoring affair given the quality of the starting pitchers.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Carson Fulmer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2190 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2267 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Typically, batters like Anthony Rendon who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Joey Estes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seth Brown is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+14.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.95 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.48 vs Oakland Athletics 4.69

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