Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 7/3/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Daniel - Angels
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 3, 2024, in the second game of their series at Oakland Coliseum. Both teams are mired in challenging seasons, with the Athletics holding a dismal 30-56 record and the Angels not faring much better at 36-47.

Oakland will send right-handed Joey Estes to the mound, who is currently ranked as the #257 starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced Power Rankings. Estes has had a tough season with a 5.24 ERA, although his 4.32 xERA suggests he might have been a bit unlucky and could see some improvement. He’ll be facing an Angels lineup that ranks 16th in offense this season, an average ranking overall.

The Angels will counter with right-hander Davis Daniel, who has been impressive in limited action, boasting a 0.00 ERA over one start. However, his 2.42 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate and may regress. Daniel's high strikeout rate (30.8%) could play well against the Athletics, who have the 2nd most strikeouts in MLB, but the Athletics do have some pop, ranking 9th in home runs.

From a bullpen perspective, the Athletics hold a significant edge, ranked 4th in Power Rankings, while the Angels languish at 29th. This could be a crucial factor late in the game, especially in a matchup expected to be close, as evidenced by the identical implied win probabilities of 50% for both teams.

Offensively, Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for Oakland, hitting .313 with a .875 OPS over the last week. For the Angels, Luis Rengifo has been on fire, hitting .450 with a 1.300 OPS, including 2 home runs in the past week.

With both teams struggling, this game is an interesting matchup of two underwhelming starting pitchers, but the Athletics' superior bullpen and home run potential could tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Davis Daniel's 2144.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 25th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Lawrence Butler has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brent Rooker ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.51 vs Oakland Athletics 4.3

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