Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 7/2/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels are set to open a new series on July 2, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum. Both teams have endured lackluster seasons thus far, with Oakland sitting at 30-56 and Los Angeles just slightly better at 36-47. This American League West matchup features two right-handed starters: Mitch Spence for the Athletics and Jose Soriano for the Angels.

Spence has had a rough year, ranking as the 192nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He carries a 4.35 ERA and a middle-of-the-pack 4-4 Win/Loss record. However, Spence's 3.79 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve as the season progresses. Spence's projected outing includes an average 5.5 innings with 2.8 earned runs, 4.4 strikeouts, 5.6 hits, and 1.3 walks.

On the other side, Soriano fares better in the rankings, placed 60th. With an ERA of 3.48, his statistics indicate a strong season despite a 4-5 record. However, his projections for today’s game are mixed: 4.3 innings with 1.8 earned runs, 4.4 strikeouts, 3.9 hits, and 1.5 walks.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. Oakland’s lineup is ranked 26th overall, 28th in batting average, and 25th in stolen bases. However, they rank 8th in home runs, providing some power potential. Conversely, the Angels sit at an average 16th in overall offensive ranking, 18th in batting average, 12th in home runs, and 10th in stolen bases.

Recent performances highlight the Athletics' Armando Alvarez, who has been on a tear with a .429 batting average and 1.000 OPS over the last week. Alvarez has recorded 6 hits, 5 runs, and 1 stolen base in his last 4 games. For the Angels, Willie Calhoun has been equally hot with a .400 batting average and 1.350 OPS over the last 6 games, including 6 hits and 1 home run.

Both teams' bullpens offer a stark contrast. Oakland's relievers are ranked 7th, showcasing reliability, while the Angels' bullpen is ranked last, which could be a crucial factor in a close game. Betting markets reflect this, setting the moneyline for both teams at -110, implying a 50% win probability for each.

Today's game is projected to be closely contested, with both teams favored evenly and an over/under set at 8.0 runs. While the Athletics' current moneyline and offensive power could offer an edge, the Angels’ better record and Soriano's superior season stats keep them in the mix for a win.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jose Soriano to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Zach Neto has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (87.6% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball batters like Brent Rooker generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today, Daz Cameron is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34% rate (78th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 83 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.20 Units / 205% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.53 vs Oakland Athletics 4.11

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