Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Johnny Cueto - Angels
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on August 21, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in the standings. The Royals, currently 70-56, are enjoying a solid season and are well-positioned for a potential playoff run. In contrast, the Angels, sitting at 54-72, are struggling significantly and will need to turn things around quickly to salvage their season.

In their last matchup, the Angels enjoyed a big night offensively, defeating the Royals 9-5. Michael Lorenzen is projected to take the mound for Kansas City, and while he ranks as the 195th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his 3.68 ERA indicates he has had some success this year. However, his 5.01 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Lorenzen's ability to limit hits is a concern, as he projects to allow an average of 5.2 hits today, which is notably poor.

On the other side, Johnny Cueto will be starting for the Angels. Cueto has struggled this season, with projections indicating he may allow around 3.3 earned runs and 6.2 hits in approximately 5.3 innings. His 0.985 OPS against over the last week suggests hitters have found success against him, making this matchup particularly favorable for the Royals' offense, which ranks 12th in MLB.

With Kansas City’s offense showing signs of strength, particularly with Dairon Blanco’s recent hot streak—boasting a 0.500 batting average and 1.750 OPS over the last week—they enter this game as significant favorites. The Royals' implied team total of 5.07 runs reflects their offensive potential against a struggling Angels pitching staff.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Johnny Cueto has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54.8% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Mickey Moniak has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Niko Kavadas, Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Michael Lorenzen's fastball spin rate of 2384 rpm grades out in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) provides evidence that Freddy Fermin has been lucky this year with his .333 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Kansas City Royals bats jointly rank among the best in the majors this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games at home (+12.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+7.15 Units / 54% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games (+10.85 Units / 36% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.88 vs Kansas City Royals 5.35

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