Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros Prediction For 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reid Detmers - Angels
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off at Minute Maid Park on September 21, 2024, the stakes are high for the Astros, who are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. With an 84-70 record, they are having an above-average season, while the Angels have struggled to a 62-92 mark, marking a disappointing campaign. This American League West matchup sees the Astros as a significant favorite, with a moneyline of -240 and an implied win probability of 68%.

The Astros will send Ronel Blanco to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has posted an impressive 2.88 ERA this season, despite his advanced metrics suggesting some luck has been involved. Blanco's ability to limit earned runs will be crucial against an Angels offense that ranks 28th in batting average and has struggled to produce consistently throughout the year.

Reid Detmers, a left-handed pitcher, will start for the Angels. Detmers has had a tough season with a 6.05 ERA, though his xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky. The Astros' offense, ranked 3rd in team batting average, could pose a challenge for Detmers, particularly as they are adept at putting the ball in play and rank 11th in home runs.

The Astros' bullpen, ranked 14th, holds a slight edge over the Angels' pen, which sits at 28th in the Power Rankings. This could be a decisive factor in the later innings. The Astros are projected to score 5.44 runs according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicating a strong offensive showing. Meanwhile, the Angels are projected to score 3.93 runs, reflecting their struggles this season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Among all starters, Reid Detmers's fastball spin rate of 2134 rpm grades out in the 21st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Schanuel has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 82-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mickey Moniak pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has been unlucky this year. His .284 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .325.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Houston Astros with a 17.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 85 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.22 vs Houston Astros 5.47

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