Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros Prediction For 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Suarez - Angels
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are set to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 19, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in an American League West matchup. The Astros, with an 82-70 record, are having an above-average season and are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Angels are enduring a rough year with a 62-90 record, and their postseason hopes have long since faded.

On the mound, the Astros will start Yusei Kikuchi, who is ranked as the 73rd best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Kikuchi's 4.29 ERA might seem average, but his 3.25 xFIP indicates some bad luck, suggesting potential for improvement. The left-hander projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs and recording 6.2 strikeouts. However, his projection of 4.8 hits and 1.4 walks allowed needs attention.

The Angels counter with Jose Suarez, one of the worst pitchers in MLB by advanced metrics. Suarez's 6.80 ERA is alarming, though his 4.41 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky. He is expected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs and 5.6 hits, while striking out 3.5 batters.

Houston's offense, ranked 9th in MLB, is a force, boasting the 3rd best team batting average. Conversely, the Angels' lineup struggles, sitting 27th overall and 28th in batting average. The Astros' bullpen, ranked 10th, is another advantage over the Angels' 28th ranked relief corps.

With a projected win probability of 71% and an implied team total of 5.27 runs, the Astros are positioned as massive favorites. The Angels, with just a 29% chance, face a tough task against a superior opponent.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Houston Astros have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Suarez in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Taylor Ward has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 4th-worst projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Los Angeles Angels.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Yusei Kikuchi's 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 81st percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 139 games (+15.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 81% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.02 vs Houston Astros 5.59

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.