Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros Prediction For 5/22/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On May 22, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. This game is part of an American League West matchup, showcasing two teams within the same division.

Unfortunately, both teams are not having the best seasons. The Astros have a record of 22-27, while the Angels are struggling with a record of 19-30. Despite their struggles, the Astros have shown some promise with their offense, ranking as the fourth-best in MLB. Their batting average sits at an average 14th in the league, but their power hitting is stronger, ranking ninth in team home runs. Meanwhile, the Angels possess the 11th best offense, excelling in team home runs but struggling in stolen bases.

In terms of pitching matchups, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Brown is considered an above-average starting pitcher at #89 out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. Although his win/loss record stands at 1-4, his 4.07 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Angels will start left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson. Anderson boasts an impressive 2.72 ERA this season, but his 4.89 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future outings.

Both teams have had their struggles in the bullpen department. The Astros sit at an average 18th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings for bullpen performance, while the Angels rank as the worst in MLB. This could potentially play a role in the outcome of the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Astros are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -185, giving them an implied win probability of 63%. The Angels, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%.

Considering the projected win probabilities, the Astros have a higher chance of emerging victorious. However, with the Angels' strong offense and the Astros' inconsistent pitching, the outcome may not be as straightforward as the odds suggest. Baseball is a game of uncertainties, and anything can happen on any given day.

Both teams will be looking to bounce back from their struggles and secure a much-needed win. As the game unfolds, the Astros' offense will aim to capitalize on Tyler Anderson's low-strikeout pitching style, while the Angels will rely on their power hitters to overcome Hunter Brown's solid performance projections.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson should be in good shape matching up with 7 batters in the projected offense who hit from the other side in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Luis Rengifo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown's fastball velocity of 94.5 mph ranks in the 76th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yordan Alvarez's speed has decreased this year. His 25.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.34 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+4.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+12.05 Units / 50% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.71 vs Houston Astros 5.52

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